国际顶刊 |《英国政治科学杂志》2021年第1期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《英国政治科学杂志》2021年第51卷第1期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
British Journal of Political Science（英国政治学学杂志）是剑桥大学出版社旗下学术期刊，创刊于1971年，出版周期为每年4期，现任主编为加州大学滨河分校教授Shaun Bowler。期刊收录范围涵盖政治科学的所有细分学科。IF：3.120
期刊研究领域和收录范围包括：政治理论研究、国际关系研究、区域事务研究等。
PART 2
期刊目录
The British Academy Brian Barry Prize Essay: Representing the Future: The Interests of Future Persons in Representative Democracy
英国国家学术院布莱恩·巴里奖获奖论文：代表未来——代议制民主中有关未来世代的利益问题
Adapt or Perish? How Parties Respond to Party System Saturation in 21 Western Democracies, 1945–2011
适应还是消亡？从1945年到2011年，21个西方民主国家中的政党如何应对政党制度饱和现象
Reconceptualizing Dimensions of Political Competition In Europe: A Demand-side Approach
对欧洲政治竞争维度的再定义：一种（来自）需求侧的方法
Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions: Rival Forecasting Strategies
投票预期与投票意向：相互竞争的预测策略
How to Close the Gender Gap in Political Participation: Lessons from Matrilineal Societies in Africa
如何缩小政治参与中的性别差距——来自非洲母系社会的经验教训
Conceptions of National Identity and Ambivalence towards Immigration
关于移民的国家认同观念和矛盾心理
‘Why Do You Ask?’ The Nature and Impacts of Attitudes towards Public Opinion Surveys in the Arab World
“你为什么这么问?”——阿拉伯世界对民意调查态度的性质与及其影响
Beyond Positive and Negative: New Perspectives on Feedback Effects in Public Opinion on the Welfare State
超越正面和负面：探讨公众舆论对福利国家的反馈效应的新视角
Trends in Public Support for Welfare Spending: How the Economy Matters Conceptions of National Identity and Ambivalence towards Immigration
公众支持对福利支出的趋势——经济如何影响国家认同观念和对移民的矛盾心理
In the Shadow of Conflict: How Emotions, Threat Perceptions and Victimization Influence Foreign Policy Attitudes
在冲突的阴影下：情绪、对威胁的感知与遭受侵害如何影响看待外交政策的态度
High-Profile Criminal Violence: Why Drug Cartels Murder Government Officials and Party Candidates in Mexico
引人注目的犯罪暴力：墨西哥贩毒集团为什么谋杀政府官员和政党候选人
Systematic Measurement Error in Election Violence Data: Causes and Consequences
选举暴力数据的系统性测量误差：原因和后果
Development or Rent Seeking? How Political Influence Shapes Public Works Provision in India
发展还是寻租？政治影响如何塑造印度的公共工程供应
Crazy Like a Fox? Are Leaders with Reputations for Madness More Successful at International Coercion?
像狐狸一样疯狂？以疯狂闻名的领导人是否在胁迫他国方面更加成功？
.How Do Observers Assess Resolve?
观察家们如何评估决心？
Electoral Cycles in Government Policy Making: Strategic Timing of Austerity Reform Measures in Western Europe
政府决策中的选举周期：西欧实施财政紧缩改革措施的战略时机
Contingent Advantage? Sovereign Borrowing, Democratic Institutions and Global Capital Cycles
有条件的优势？主权借贷、民主体制和全球资本周期
Redistribution and the Quality of Government: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe
再分配与政府质量：来自中东欧的证据
Economic Sanctions and Government Spending Adjustments: The Case of Disaster Preparedness
经济制裁和政府开支调整以灾害预防为例
Multilevel Analysis with Few Clusters: Improving Likelihood-Based Methods to Provide Unbiased Estimates and Accurate Inference
少聚类的多水平分析：改进基于似然的方法，以提供无偏估计和准确推断
PART 3
精选译文
01 英国国家学术院布莱恩·巴里奖获奖论文：代表未来——代议制民主中有关未来世代的利益问题
【题目】
The British Academy Brian Barry Prize Essay: Representing the Future: The Interests of Future Persons in Representative Democracy
【作者】
ANDRE SANTOS CAMPOS, Nova University of Lisbon
【摘要】
当代民主制度在解决那些可能影响未来世代的问题时，存在着固有的短视。作为对此的一种回应，最近关于未来人们的各种民主代表权利的设计提议有所增加。这篇文章表明，即便未来人不可能获得真正的政治代表，政治决策仍然可以将尚未出生者的相关利益纳入考虑范围。这一目标是通过关注儿童的政治代表权来实现的，而儿童作为一类特殊案例，属于被代表群体中的准未来成员。
As a reaction against contemporary democracy’s inherent short-sightedness in solving problems that are likely to affect distant future generations, there has been a recent increase in proposals for different kinds of democratic representation of future persons. This article shows that even though there can be no such thing as political representation of future persons, the relevant affected interests of the as-yet unborn can still be taken into consideration in political decision making. This aim is achieved by focusing on the political representation of children as special cases of semi-future members of the class of the represented.
02 适应还是消亡？从1945年到2011年，21个西方民主国家中的政党如何应对政党制度饱和现象
【题目】
Adapt or Perish? How Parties Respond to Party System Saturation in 21 Western Democracies, 1945–2011
【作者】
MARC VAN DE WARDT, Ghent University and Tilburg Institute of Governance
ARJEN VAN WITTELOOSTUIJN, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
【摘要】
本研究考察的是政党是否（以及如何）适应政党制度饱和(PSS)的问题。当参选的有效政党数量超过预期时，政党制度就会饱和。先前的研究表明，当政党制度过度饱和时，政党更有可能退出竞选。这篇文章考察了政党是否会通过增加其政策纲领的细微性、形成选举联盟或是合并政党来适应政党的制度性饱和。基于对1945年至2011年间21个稳固的西方民主国家中522个政党角逐357次选举的时间序列分析，该研究发现，如果政党制度的饱和程度（PSS）增加，政党则更有可能加入选举联盟，而退出选举联盟的可能性则更低。此外，一小部分老党派将合并。这些结果表明，政党适应环境的能力有限，这对研究政党(制度)的变化和选举竞争模式具有重要意义。
This study examines whether (and how) parties adapt to party system saturation (PSS). A party system is oversaturated when a higher effective number of parties contests elections than predicted. Previous research has shown that parties are more likely to exit when party systems are oversaturated. This article examines whether parties will adapt by increasing the nicheness of their policy platform, by forming electoral alliances or by merging. Based on time-series analyses of 522 parties contesting 357 elections in twenty-one established Western democracies between 1945 and 2011, the study finds that parties are more likely to enter – and less likely to leave – electoral alliances if PSS increases. Additionally, a small share of older parties will merge. The results highlight parties’ limited capacity to adapt to their environments, which has important implications for the literature on party (system) change and models of electoral competition.
03 对欧洲政治竞争维度的再定义：一种（来自）需求侧的方法
【题目】
Reconceptualizing Dimensions of Political Competition In Europe: A Demand-side Approach
【作者】
JONATHAN WHEATLEY, Oxford Brookes University
FERNANDO MENDEZ, University of Zurich
【摘要】
学者们试图理解欧洲的政治竞争，并提出了多种有关政治维度/分类的模型。然而大多数学者从政治的供给侧(政党)获取数据，对需求侧(选民)的研究仍然很少。在本文中，我们比较了这两种方法。其主要的区别在于，虽然供给侧的方法提出了一个可以适用于所有欧盟国家的单一维度模型，但需求侧的方法揭示了更大程度的差异。特别是通常被供给侧研究确定为TAN（Traditional, Authoritarian,
Nationalism，传统、威权、民族）或GAL（Green, Alternative, Liberal，环保、另类、自由）的一系列议题，从需求侧的角度来看，不仅未能形成一个连贯的维度，还在一些案例（如北欧中）中涵盖了欧盟一体化的问题，但在其他案例中则没有涉及。
Scholars seeking to understand political competition in Europe have proposed various models of political dimensionality. While most scholars draw on data from the supply side of politics (political parties),demand-side (voter) studies remain few. In this article we compare the two approaches. The main difference is that while supply-side approaches suggest a single model of dimensionality that can be applied to all EU countries, demand-side approaches suggest a greater degree of divergence. In particular, the bundle of issues commonly identified by supply-side studies as TAN/GAL not only fail to form a coherent dimension when viewed from a demand-side perspective, but incorporate issues of EU integration in some (northern European) cases, but not in others.
04 投票预期与投票意向：相互竞争的预测策略
【题目】
Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions: Rival Forecasting Strategies
【作者】
ANDREAS E. MURR, University of Warwick
MARY STEGMAIER, University of Missouri
MICHAEL S LEWIS-BECK , University of Iowa
【摘要】
普通公民是否比传统的选民意向调查更善于预测选举结果?为了解决/解答这个问题，作者比较了八种用于预测英国大选结果的模型:其中一种基于选民对谁将获胜的预期，另七种则基于选民自己打算投票给谁的意愿(包括“统一的全国摇摆模型”和“立方体规则模型”)。数据来自康雷斯（ComRes）、盖洛普（Gallup）以及埃塞克斯（Essex）持续监测调查自1950至2017年449个月内进行的的预期民调和意向民调。如此大的样本量使得对模型预测准确性的比较不仅可以在选举前几个月进行，甚至可以在选举前几年进行。在预测获胜政党和政党席位份额分布两个方面，投票期望模型的表现比投票意向模型更好。
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls? The authors address this question by comparing eight forecasting models for British general elections: one based on voters’ expectations of who will win and seven based on who voters themselves intend to vote for (including ‘uniform national swing model’ and ‘cube rule’ models). The data come from ComRes and Gallup polls as well as the Essex Continuous Monitoring Surveys, 1950–2017, yielding 449 months with both expectation and intention polls. The large sample size permits comparisons of the models’ prediction accuracy not just in the months prior to the election, but in the years leading up to it. Vote expectation models outperform vote intention models in predicting both the winning party and parties’ seat shares.
05 如何缩小政治参与中的性别差距——来自非洲母系社会的经验教训
【题目】
How to Close the Gender Gap in Political Participation: Lessons from Matrilineal Societies in Africa
【作者】
AMANDA LEA ROBINSON, Ohio State University
JESSICA GOTTLIEB, Texas A&M University
【摘要】
虽然政治参与方面的性别差距普遍存在，特别是存在于发展中国家，但本研究提供了系统的证据，从而证明一种文化实践可以缩小这一差距。这篇文章使用了来自非洲各地的数据，表明母系制度——通过女性血统追踪亲属关系——与政治参与中的性别差距的缩减显著相关。随后，本文以这一实践为视角，由此得出更普遍的推论。作者使用来自马拉维的定量和定性数据证明，母系制度之所以能成功地提升女性在社会上的成就，是因为它有能力维持更为进步的有关女性在社会中角色的规范。通过实践的代际传递，它以一种可预期的方式，为个人设定了对社区中其他家庭所采纳的性别理念及行为的期望。这项研究检验并找到了证据反驳两种相互竞争的解释，即母系制度只通过赋予物质资源发挥作用，或者通过提高女孩的受教育水平起作用。
While gender gaps in political participation are pervasive, especially in developing countries, this study provides systematic evidence of one cultural practice that closes this gap. Using data from across Africa, this article shows that matrilineality – tracing kinship through the female line – is robustly associated with closing the gender gap in political participation. It then uses this practice as a lens through which to draw more general inferences. Exploiting quantitative and qualitative data from Malawi, the authors demonstrate that matrilineality’s success in improving outcomes for women lies in its ability to sustain more progressive norms about the role of women in society. It sets individual expectations about the gendered beliefs and behaviors of other households in the community, and in a predictable way through the intergenerational transmission of the practice. The study tests and finds evidence against two competing explanations: that matrilineality works through its conferral of material resources alone, or by increasing education for girls.
06 关于移民的国家认同观念和矛盾心理
【题目】
Conceptions of National Identity and Ambivalence towards Immigration
【作者】
EMMY LINDSTAM, University of Mannheim
MATTHIAS MADER, University of Mannheim
HARALD SCHOEN, University of Mannheim
【摘要】
国家认同通常被认为是为公民在移民等问题上的政治观点提供结构和稳定性的因素。用民族-文化术语定义国家成员身份的公民不太可能支持移民，而那些具有公民观念的公民则更有可能对移民表示支持。作者提出，按照民族-文化和公民的这两条路线来定义国家认同，可能会带来相互冲突的考虑事项，导致人们产生矛盾心理，这意味着国家认同可能不像以前的研究表明的那样是一种稳定的力量。借助异构选择模型和一项独特的调查实验，结果表明，在2015到2016年欧洲难民危机期间，与具有理想型观念的人相比，对国家认同具有混合型观念的德国公民拥有更容易改变且可塑性更强的观点。这些发现指出了矛盾心理的一种基于身份的来源，并拓展了当前对人们如何形成关于移民的态度这一问题的理解。
National identities are often conceived of as factors that lend structure and stability to citizens’ political opinions on issues such as immigration. While citizens who define national membership in ethno-cultural terms are less likely to support immigration, those with a civic conception are more likely to do so. The authors propose that defining national identity along both ethno-cultural and civic lines may give rise to conflicting considerations, leading people to experience ambivalence, implying that national identities may serve less as a stabilizing force than suggested by previous research. Findings from heterogeneous choice models and a unique survey experiment show that German citizens with mixed conceptions of national identity had more variable and more malleable opinions than individuals with ideal-type conceptions during the 2015/2016 European refugee crisis. The findings point to an identity-based source of ambivalence and extend current understandings of how people form attitudes towards immigration.
07 “你为什么这么问?”——阿拉伯世界对民意调查态度的性质与及其影响
【题目】
‘Why Do You Ask?’ The Nature and Impacts of Attitudes towards Public Opinion Surveys in the Arab World
【作者】
JUSTIN J. GENGLER, Social and Economic Survey Research Institute
MARK TESSLER, Qatar University
RUSSELL LUCAS, University of Michigan
JONATHAN FORNEY, Forcier Consulting
【摘要】
这篇文章首次在一个阿拉伯国家探讨了公众对民意调查的态度，及其对人们参与调查行为的影响。这项研究使用了来自卡塔尔的原始调查数据，其人口的多样性使得研究者可以在一个单一的、非民主政体内对不同的文化地理群体加以比较。作者发现，无论是在绝对数值上还是相对于非阿拉伯国家的个人而言，卡塔尔人和阿拉伯侨民对调查持积极的看法。因素分析表明，尽管卡塔尔对调查态度的基本组成要素主要反映了西方背景下得以识别的因素，一个新维度被研究者发现了，它包含了调查被感知到的意图。同时，两个嵌入实验评估了对调查的态度所带来的影响。结果表明对调查的普遍态度既能单独发挥作用，又能和调查的客观属性相结合，共同影响被调查者的参与意愿。该研究还发现，对调查可靠性和意图的负面看法增加了阿拉伯受访者中动机性漏报的行为，而非阿拉伯人只对可感知的认知成本和时间成本敏感。这些发现对阿拉伯地区消费者和生产者的调查数据有直接影响。
For the first time in an Arab country, this article examines attitudes toward public opinion surveys and their effects on survey-taking behavior. The study uses original survey data from Qatar, the diverse population of which permits comparisons across cultural–geographical groupings within a single, non-democratic polity. The authors find that Qatari and expatriate Arabs hold positive views of surveys, both in absolute terms and relative to individuals from non-Arab countries. Factor analysis reveals that the underlying dimensions of survey attitudes in Qatar mostly mirror those identified in Western settings, but a new dimension is discovered that captures the perceived intentions of surveys. Two embedded experiments assess the impact of survey attitudes. The results show that generalized attitudes toward surveys affect respondents’ willingness to participate both alone and in combination with surveys’ objective attributes. The study also finds that negative views about survey reliability and intentions increase motivated under-reporting among Arab respondents, whereas non-Arabs are sensitive only to perceived cognitive and time costs. These findings have direct implications for consumers and producers of Arab survey data.
08 超越正面和负面：探讨公众舆论对福利国家的反馈效应的新视角
【题目】
Beyond Positive and Negative: New Perspectives on Feedback Effects in Public Opinion on the Welfare State
【作者】
MARIUS R BUSEMEYER, University of Konstanz
AURÉLIEN ABRASSART, University of Berne
ROULA NEZI, University of Surrey
【摘要】
近年来，关于公众态度和政策偏好的政策反馈研究已经成为了一个不断发展的研究领域。遵循皮尔森传统的学者通常认为，积极的、自我强化的反馈效应占主导地位（也就是说，态度与现有的制度是相称的），而Wlezien和Soroka创设的公共恒温器模型所预期的是消极的、自我削弱的反馈。本文创立并提出了一种更为具体的有关反馈效果的类型学，它区分了加速、自我强化和自我削弱的反馈，具体和一般的反馈，以及长期和短期的动态反馈，进而超越了正面反馈和负面反馈非黑即白的二分法。作者采用了一种伪面板方法，在对21个经济合作与发展组织（OECD） 国家中公众对福利国家不同领域的政府支出的态度进行分析时，应用了这种类型。实证分析证实了这种类型学的有效性，因为它表明可以在经验层面观测到不同类型的反馈效应。
The study of policy feedback on public attitudes and policy preferences has become a growing area of research in recent years. Scholars in the tradition of Pierson usually argue that positive, self-reinforcing feedback effects dominate (that is, attitudes are commensurate with existing institutions), whereas the public thermostat model developed by Wlezien and Soroka expects negative, self-undermining feedback. Moving beyond the blunt distinction between positive and negative feedback, this article develops and proposes a more fine-grained typology of feedback effects that distinguishes between accelerating, self-reinforcing and self-undermining, specific and general, as well as long- and short-term dynamic feedback. The authors apply this typology in an analysis of public opinion on government spending in different areas of the welfare state for twenty-one OECD countries, employing a pseudo-panel approach. The empirical analysis confirms the usefulness of this typology since it shows that different types of feedback effects can be observed empirically.
09 公众支持对福利支出的趋势——经济如何影响国家认同观念和对移民的矛盾心理
【题目】
Trends in Public Support for Welfare Spending: How the Economy Matters Conceptions of National Identity and Ambivalence towards Immigration
【作者】
CHRISTOPHER WLEZIEN, University of Texas at Austin,
STUART SOROKA, University of Michigan
【摘要】
随着美国福利支出的增加，人们对更多支出的偏好仍然相当稳定。鉴于之前的研究表明，公众会根据福利支出的变化对其福利支出偏好进行自动调整，这种长时期的偏好模式意味着，一定存在什么东西会增加公众的支持，但那是什么呢？通过关注个人的人口统计资料和一组总体经济变量，包括宏观经济和分配变量，我们解决了这个问题。结果表明，个体层面的因素与时间变化关系不大，而经济总量则与时间关系密切：在支出偏好中存在着顺周期和逆周期因素，以及收入不平等随着时间的推移而产生的抑制作用。这些变量的组合解释了美国对福利支出偏好的潜在趋势，并且揭示了这些动态的方法可以被用于分析其他支出领域和不同国家偏好演变的进程。
As spending on welfare in the United States has increased over time, preferences for more spending have remained fairly stationary. Given that previous research shows that the public adjusts its welfare spending preference thermostatically in response to welfare spending, the over-time pattern of preferences implies that something must be producing an increase in public support, but what? We address this question, focusing on individuals’ demographics and a set of aggregate economic variables, both macroeconomic and distributional. Results reveal that individual-level factors matter little to the temporal variation and aggregate economics matter a lot: there are pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical elements in spending preferences and a dampening effect of income inequality over time. The combination of these variables accounts for the underlying trend in welfare spending preferences in the US, and the method used to reveal these dynamics can be used to analyze preference evolution in other spending domains and countries.
10 在冲突的阴影下：情绪、对威胁的感知与遭受侵害如何影响看待外交政策的态度
【题目】
In the Shadow of Conflict: How Emotions, Threat Perceptions and Victimization Influence Foreign Policy Attitudes
【作者】
A. KUPATADZE, King’s College London
T. ZEITZOFF, American University
【摘要】
我们通过在格鲁吉亚进行的一项调查实验来探究情绪、对威胁的感知和过去的暴力行为如何影响人们对外交政策的态度。对接触冲突的程度不同、存在国内流离失所者的地区进行分层抽样，我们随机分配受访者，让他们接受关于俄罗斯曾在该地区实施侵略的情绪启动。我们发现，对暴力的接触或者仅仅是被激活了有关过去俄罗斯侵略的情绪，都增加了民众对俄罗斯威胁的感知，并且在更小的程度上增加了他们对俄罗斯的愤怒情绪。接受了情绪启动的个人更支持强硬的外交政策。相反，我们发现，接触暴力不会对看待外交政策的态度产生直接影响，但会通过增加愤怒和威胁感，间接加剧了态度的强硬程度。综上所述，我们的研究结果提供了证据，证明对过去暴力事件的提醒与对暴力事件的直接接触对看待外交政策的态度造成了不同影响.
We investigate how emotions, threat perceptions and past violence influence foreign policy attitudes via a survey experiment in Georgia. Using a stratified sample across areas with differential exposure to the conflict and the presence of internally displaced persons, we randomly assign respondents to receive emotional primes about Russian aggression in the region. We find that exposure to violence, as well as simply being primed about past Russian aggression, both increase the perceived threat from Russia, and to a lesser extent anger towards Russia. Individuals who receive the primes are more supportive of a hardline foreign policy. In contrast, we find that exposure to violence does not have a direct effect on foreign policy attitudes, but increases hardline attitudes indirectly, through increased anger and threat. Taken together our results provide evidence that reminders of past violence have different effects than direct exposure to violence on foreign policy attitudes.
11 引人注目的犯罪暴力：墨西哥贩毒集团为什么谋杀政府官员和政党候选人
【题目】
High-Profile Criminal Violence: Why Drug Cartels Murder Government Officials and Party Candidates in Mexico
【作者】
GUILLERMO TREJO, University of Notre Dame
SANDRA LEY, CIDE
【摘要】
这篇文章解释了2007至2012年间墨西哥贩毒集团对数百名地方民选官员和政党候选人发动的一波令人震惊的致命袭击。这些攻击令人费解，因为犯罪组织倾向于进行秘密贿赂，而不是采取公开的政治谋杀。学者们认为，毒品战争驱使武装分子攻击国家当局，以实现权力寻租。作者们利用有关墨西哥引人注目的袭击事件的原始数据表明战争需求的论点无法充分解释暴力现象。作者以政治机会为重点，指出贩毒集团利用攻击建立犯罪集团的政权，征服地方政府、人口和领土。该研究提供了定量和定性的证据，表明贩毒集团利用了墨西哥的政治两极分化，并把不受联邦层面党派的竞争对手保护的地方当局作为目标。贩毒集团在地方选举周期加强攻击，以俘获下届政府，并以地理上相邻的城市为目标，以控制大片领土。研究结果揭示了贩毒集团如何从政治环境中获得线索，通过高调的暴力行为拓展自己事实上的政治领域。这些结果对人们普遍认为的有组织犯罪集团与其是非政治行为体的假设提出了质疑。
This article explains a surprising wave of lethal attacks by drug cartels against hundreds of local elected officials and party candidates in Mexico, 2007–2012. These attacks are puzzling because criminal organizations tend to prefer the secrecy of bribery over the publicity of political murder. Scholars suggest that war drives armed actors to attack state authorities in search of protection or rents. Using original data on high-profile attacks in Mexico, the authors show that war need arguments underexplain violence. Focusing on political opportunities, they suggest that cartels use attacks to establish criminal governance regimes and conquer local governments, populations and territories. The study presents quantitative and qualitative evidence showing that cartels took advantage of Mexico’s political polarization and targeted subnational authorities who were unprotected by their federal partisan rivals. Cartels intensified attacks during subnational election cycles to capture incoming governments and targeted geographically adjacent municipalities to establish control over large territories. The findings reveal how cartels take cues from the political environment to develop their own de facto political domains through high-profile violence. These results question the widely shared assumption that organized criminal groups are apolitical actors.
12 选举暴力数据的系统性测量误差：原因和后果
【题目】
Systematic Measurement Error in Election Violence Data: Causes and Consequences
【作者】
INKEN VON BORZYSKOWSKI, Florida State University
MICHAEL WAHMAN, Michigan State University
【摘要】
以媒体对冲突事件的报道为数据源的暴力测算方法中出现系统性误差的原因和后果是什么？更具体地说，这些事件数据在地理编码和捕捉选举暴力方面的有效性如何？本研究考察了选举暴力行为的地方性差异，使用了国内选举监督调查的原始数据，并将之与业内广泛使用有关冲突事件的数据源进行比较。作者表明，传统的数据低估了整个选举周期内发生的暴力事件，特别是在人口稀少的地区和并非预期中暴力热点的地区。此外，以媒体为基础的事件数据在测量选举暴力时出现的系统性测量误差，可能会产生本不应该存在的显著关系，并导致出现不同的影响幅度。本文提出了可供未来研究的领域，并指出了现有的关于选举暴力的研究可能已经受到系统测量误差的影响。
What are the causes and consequences of systematic measurement error in violence measures drawn from media-based conflict event data? More specifically, how valid are such event data for geocoding and capturing election violence? This study examines sub-national variation in election violence and uses original data from domestic election monitor surveys as a comparison to widely used sources of event data. The authors show that conventional data under-report events throughout the election cycle, particularly in sparsely populated areas and outside anticipated violence hotspots. Moreover, systematic measurement error of media-based event data for measuring election violence can generate significant relationships where none exist, and can result in different effect magnitudes. The article suggests areas for future research and indicates ways in which existing work on election violence may have been affected by systematic measurement error.
13 发展还是寻租？政治影响如何塑造印度的公共工程供应
【题目】
Development or Rent Seeking? How Political Influence Shapes Public Works Provision in India
【作者】
ANJALI THOMAS BOHLKEN, Georgia Institute of Technology
【摘要】
那些对公共工程项目有影响力的政客们如何平衡他们获得选举支持的动机和他们寻租的倾向？本文认为，议会制中的政府精英通过将寻租机会集中在自己手中，同时在其资历较浅的党派同僚的选区中促进有效的公共产品供应，从而实现这种权衡。基于多种因果推理策略，作者使用了有关印度道路建设的详细数据，分析结果支持了这一论点。不考虑部长级地位时，执政党议员在其选区内显示了更高水平的道路供应，但部长所在选区的道路项目比其他执政党议员所在选区的道路项目显示出更高的寻租水平。此外，与该机制一致的是，执政党议员获得寻租的机会渠道的减少，似乎主要是受友党部长的影响。研究结果表明，政治化的分配有时可以缓解基础设施供应的低效率。
How do politicians with influence over public works programs balance their incentives to gain electoral support with their proclivities for rent seeking? This article argues that government elites in parliamentary systems manage this trade-off by concentrating rent-seeking opportunities in their own hands while facilitating efficient public goods provision in the constituencies of their more junior partisan colleagues. Analyses using fine-grained data on road construction in India based on a variety of causal inference strategies support the argument. While ruling party legislators showed higher levels of road provision in their constituencies regardless of ministerial status, road projects in ministers’ constituencies showed higher levels of rent seeking than those in the constituencies of other ruling party legislators. Moreover, consistent with the mechanism, ruling party legislators’ diminished access to rent-seeking opportunities appears to be largely driven by the influence of co-partisan ministers. The findings illuminate how politicized distribution can sometimes mitigate inefficiencies in infrastructure provision.
14 像狐狸一样疯狂？以疯狂闻名的领导人是否在胁迫他国方面更加成功？
【题目】
Crazy Like a Fox? Are Leaders with Reputations for Madness More Successful at International Coercion?
【作者】
ROSEANNE W. MCMANUS, Pennsylvania State University
【摘要】
根据理查德•尼克松和早期理性主义学者倡导的“疯子理论”，被视为精神不稳定可以帮助领导人胁迫其外国对手。本文提供了对该理论的第一个大N样本检验。作者采用了一种基于感知的原始测量方法，根据新闻报道对领导者的疯狂名声进行编码，并分析了其对一般性威慑和危机谈判的影响。该研究还检验了几种假设，探讨在何种情况下，被感知到的疯狂预计将带来更多或更少的好处。作者发现，被感知到的疯狂对一般的威慑是有害的，有时在危机谈判中也是有害的，但在一定条件下可能对危机谈判是有益的。该分析表明，被感知到的疯狂的有害影响是由承诺问题造成的。
According to the ‘Madman Theory’ promoted by Richard Nixon and early rationalist scholars, being viewed as mentally unstable can help a leader coerce foreign adversaries. This article offers the first large-N test of this theory. The author introduces an original perception-based measure of leaders’ reputations for madness, coded based on news reports, and analyzes its effect on both general deterrence and crisis bargaining. The study also tests several hypotheses about the conditions under which perceived madness is expected to be more or less helpful. The author finds that perceived madness is harmful to general deterrence and is sometimes also harmful in crisis bargaining, but may be helpful in crisis bargaining under certain conditions. The analysis suggests that the harmful effect of perceived madness results from a commitment problem.
15 观察家们如何评估决心？
【题目】
How Do Observers Assess Resolve?
【作者】
JOSHUA D KERTZER, Harvard University
JONATHAN RENSHON, University of Wisconsin-Madison
KEREN YARHI-MILO, Princeton University
【摘要】
尽管有太多的理论框架，国际关系学者一直在努力解决观察人士如何评估决心的问题。我们在这方面作出了两项重要贡献。从概念上讲,我们创设了一个整合性框架，将原本不相关的理论结合起来，将它们视为一组启发式方法，被参与者用来简化处理信息丰富的环境。在方法论上，我们采用了联合实验，这一方法提供了使用其他研究设计时无法获得的实证支持。我们发现普通公民是“直觉性威慑理论家”，在判断决心时，他们在很大程度上关注能力、利益、信号和过去的行为。我们还发现，观察员认为民主国家相较于专制国家持有更少的决心（而不是更多），这对民主信誉理论的关键命题提出了质疑。最后，一个概念验证实验表明，在如何解读代价高昂的信号以及如何看待民主政体不如专制政体决心坚定方面，一群精英决策者的看法是与美国公众一致的。
Despite a plethora of theoretical frameworks, IR scholars have struggled with the question of how observers assess resolve. We make two important contributions in this direction. Conceptually, we develop an integrative framework that unites otherwise disconnected theories, viewing them as a set of heuristics actors use to simplify information-rich environments. Methodologically, we employ a conjoint experiment that provides empirical traction impossible to obtain using alternative research designs. We find that ordinary citizens are ‘intuitive deterrence theorists’ who focus to a great extent on capabilities, stakes, signals and past actions in judging resolve. We also find that observers see democracies as less resolved than autocracies (not more), casting doubt on key propositions of democratic credibility theory. Finally, a conceptual replication shows that a group of elite decision makers converge with the US public in how they interpret costly signals, and in viewing democracies as less resolved than autocracies.
16 政府决策中的选举周期：西欧实施财政紧缩改革措施的战略时机
【题目】
Electoral Cycles in Government Policy Making: Strategic Timing of Austerity Reform Measures in Western Europe
【作者】
DANIEL STROBL, University of Vienna
HANNA BÄCK, Lund University
WOLFGANG C. MÜLLER, University of Vienna
MARIYANA ANGELOVA, University of Vienna
【摘要】
本文考察了执政党是否能战略性地安排实施紧缩政策的时间，来帮助他们赢得连任。本文通过直接关注政府的政策产出，分析了20年来13个西欧国家超过1200项的福利和税收紧缩措施，对现有研究作出了贡献。与之前的研究一致，作者发现随着选举临近，政府不太可能引入紧缩政策。该研究引入了关于哪些政府有能力和机会因时制宜地作出政策的原始假设。作者认为，在领导层变更（新首相出任）的情况下，最小获胜内阁所面临的谈判环境不那么复杂，就可以令人信服地将紧缩措施的责任转移给前一届政府。实证分析表明，这些政府最有可能审时度势地实施紧缩政策。
This article investigates whether governing parties strategically time austerity policies to help them win reelection. It contributes to existing research by focusing directly on government policy output, analyzing over 1,200 welfare and taxation austerity measures in thirteen Western European countries over twenty years. In line with previous research, the authors find that governments become less likely to introduce austerity measures as elections approach. The study introduces original hypotheses about which governments have the ability and opportunity to strategically time policy decisions. The authors suggest that minimal winning cabinets with leadership change (new prime ministers) face less complex bargaining environments and can credibly shift responsibility for austerity measures to the preceding government. The empirical analyses show that these governments are most likely to strategically time austerity policies.
17 有条件的优势？主权借贷、民主体制和全球资本周期
【题目】
Contingent Advantage? Sovereign Borrowing, Democratic Institutions and Global Capital Cycles
【作者】
CAMERON BALLARD-ROSA, UNC Chapel Hill
LAYNA MOSLEY, UNC Chapel Hill
RACHEL L WELLHAUSEN, University of Texas at Austin
【摘要】
国内和全球因素如何影响政府在一级资本市场发行债券的能力？与“民主优势”相一致的是，我们确定了促进债务发行的国内制度机制，这包括行政约束和政策透明度，而不包括选举事件。最重要的是，我们认为民主的制度优势是有条件的/取决于外界环境的变化：投资者对国内政治的关注随着全球资本市场的状况而变化。当全球金融流动性较低时，投资者会厌恶风险，政治风险进而限制了政府的借贷能力。但当全球市场繁荣时，投资者就会容忍风险，对政治风险不那么敏感。我们用1990至2016年间131家主权债券发行者在一级资本市场上发行的24.5万支政府债券的新数据来支持我们的论点，而一级资本市场是与政府的市场准入成本关系最密切的一点。在此过程中，我们强调了系统性因素在决定资本市场准入方面的作用，而这些因素在许多“开放经济政治学”的研究中都被低估了。
How do domestic and global factors shape governments’ capacity to issue debt in primary capital markets? Consistent with the ‘democratic advantage’, we identify domestic institutional mechanisms, including executive constraints and policy transparency, that facilitate debt issuance rather than electoral events. Most importantly, we argue that the democratic advantage is contingent: investors’ attention to domestic politics varies with conditions in global capital markets. When global financial liquidity is low, investors are risk-averse, and political risk constrains governments’ capacity to borrow. But when global markets are flush, investors are risk-tolerant and less sensitive to political risk. We support our argument with new data on 245,000 government bond issues in primary capital markets – the point at which governments’ costs of market access matter most – for 131 sovereign issuers (1990–2016). In doing so, we highlight the role of systemic factors, which are under-appreciated in much ‘open economy politics’ research, in determining access to capital markets.
18 再分配与政府质量：来自中东欧的证据
【题目】
Redistribution and the Quality of Government: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe
【作者】
BILYANA PETROVA, European University Institute
【摘要】
有关福利国家的文献在很大程度上忽略了一个国家的政府质量对其再分配水平的影响。通过对21个中欧和东欧国家进行横截面时间序列分析，本文表明以腐败程度较高、官僚主义盛行、行政效率低下和法治执行不力为特征的环境与较低水平的再分配相关联。糟糕的政府限制了各国分配资金用以再分配并将其提供给受益人的能力，从而直接影响了再分配过程的供给面。与现有的以需求为导向观点相反，本文所提出的因果机制并没有将较低水平的再分配归咎于公众对福利国家缺少支持。相反，它侧重于各国采取和执行致力于减少不平等的政策。研究结果对引申推论和模型设定而言都是稳健的。
The welfare state literature has largely ignored the impact of a country’s quality of government on its levels of redistribution. Using cross-sectional time-series analysis of twenty-one Central and Eastern European countries, this article shows that environments characterized by higher levels of corruption, rampant bureaucratic inefficiency and ineffective enforcement of the rule of law are associated with lower levels of redistribution. Poor government directly affects the supply side of the redistribution process by hindering countries’ ability to allocate funds to redistribution and deliver them to their beneficiaries. Contrary to existing demand-oriented perspectives, the proposed causal mechanism does not blame lower redistribution on the lack of public support for the welfare state. Rather, it focuses on the capacity of states to adopt and implement inequality-reducing policies. The results are robust to numerous extensions and model specifications.
19 经济制裁和政府开支调整：以灾害预防为例
【题目】
Economic Sanctions and Government Spending Adjustments: The Case of Disaster Preparedness
【作者】
ELENA V MCLEAN, University at Buffalo
TAEHEE WHANG, Yonsei University
【摘要】
有关经济制裁的研究表明，被制裁国家的总体经济成本往往较低。本文认为，尽管如此，制裁成本能迫使这些国家的政府将预算资源从低优先级的支出类别重新分配到其他类别，从而尽量减少其政治成本。防灾减灾就是这样一个优先级较低的类别。作者指出，经济制裁导致备灾开支减少，从而扩大了受经济制裁的国家因自然灾害而造成的经济和人员损失规模。
Economic sanctions research suggests that sanctioned countries’ overall economic costs tend to be low. This article argues that, despite this, sanction costs can force the governments of these countries to reallocate budget resources from low-priority spending categories to other categories in an effort to minimize their political costs. One such low-priority category is disaster preparedness and mitigation. The authors show that economic sanctions lead to reduced disaster preparedness spending and, as a result, increase the scale of economic and human losses generated by natural disasters in sanctioned countries.
20 少聚类的多水平分析：改进基于似然的方法，以提供无偏估计和准确推断
【题目】
Multilevel Analysis with Few Clusters: Improving Likelihood-Based Methods to Provide Unbiased Estimates and Accurate Inference
【作者】
MARTIN ELFF, Zeppelin University
JAN PAUL HEISIG, Berlin Social Science Center
MERLIN SCHAEFFER, University of Copenhagen
SUSUMU SHIKANO, University of Konstanz
【摘要】
长期以来，从事量化比较方向研究的社会科学家一直担心在上层单元数量较少时多层模型的表现。此外， 2013年Stegmueller的一项使用蒙特卡洛方法的研究颇有影响力，其表明在上层模型单元数量少时，标准的最大似然估计法（ML）会产生有偏的点估计，进而作出了极不保守的推断。在这篇文章中，作者试图纠正这种负面评价。首先，他证明了线性多层模型系数的最大似然估计是无偏的。Stegmueller发现的系数估计的明显偏误可以归因于Monte Carlo误差和他的模拟研究设计的缺陷。其次，他演示了如何通过对方差参数使用限制性最大似然估计值，并根据统计推断来选择具有适当自由度的t分布来解决问题。因此，即使只有很少的上层单元，在大多数研究者熟悉的框架内，也可以实现精确的多层分析。
Quantitative comparative social scientists have long worried about the performance of multilevel models when the number of upper-level units is small. Adding to these concerns, an influential Monte Carlo study by Stegmueller (2013) suggests that standard maximum-likelihood (ML) methods yield biased point estimates and severely anti-conservative inference with few upper-level units. In this article, the authors seek to rectify this negative assessment. First, they show that ML estimators of coefficients are unbiased in linear multilevel models. The apparent bias in coefficient estimates found by Stegmueller can be attributed to Monte Carlo Error and a flaw in the design of his simulation study. Secondly, they demonstrate how inferential problems can be overcome by using restricted ML estimators for variance parameters and a t-distribution with appropriate degrees of freedom for statistical inference. Thus, accurate multilevel analysis is possible within the framework that most practitioners are familiar with, even if there are only a few upper-level units.
翻 译：田舒宁
校 对：吴佳蔚
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